Hammarby FF 2-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus BK Hacken in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Thursday 26 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Hammarby FF's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hammarby FF lead 0W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BK Hacken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 49% versus BK Hacken 68%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hammarby FF 57% | BK Hacken 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.97 xG and BK Hacken 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.010 / defence 0.872 | BK Hacken attack 1.134 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.293. BK Hacken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Hammarby FF games / 53 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 54% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | BK Hacken 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
BK Hacken lead the H2H ledger, but Hammarby FF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 50% | BK Hacken 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 54% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Hammarby FF 1.97 / BK Hacken 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.010 / def 0.872 | BK Hacken attack 1.134 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
BK Hacken xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 26 September 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Hammarby FF 2 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken part of?
Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 54% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hammarby FF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and BK Hacken?
Record (6 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 4 | BK Hacken 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and BK Hacken in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.01) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (1.13x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
54%
1.87
22%
4.58
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.25
1.28
BK Hacken xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
3%
29.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.28 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 23W 16D 14L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken's form line: 27W 9D 17L from 53 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.70 for BK Hacken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (14W 8D 4L).
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.17 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 68%.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 23W 16D 14L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 27W 9D 17L in their last 53 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or BK Hacken away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.92 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-0 on 21 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hammarby FF
5
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 2, BK Hacken have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when BK Hacken 3-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 65%, BK Hacken 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hammarby FF and 69% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hammarby FF's games and 54% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hammarby FF's matches and 69% of BK Hacken's.
Do Hammarby FF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat BK Hacken 2-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.97 xG and BK Hacken 1.28 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. BK Hacken landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against BK Hacken attack 1.13 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 54% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, BK Hacken 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
BK Hacken's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.60 PPG, BK Hacken 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.