Hammarby FF 0-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 June 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 0.96 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.130 / defence 0.969 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.913 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.498. Data: 2 Hammarby FF games / 2 AIK Stockholm games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 24% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 42%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | AIK Stockholm 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 24% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Hammarby FF 0.96 / AIK Stockholm 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.130 / def 0.969 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.913 / def 1.021 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.32
AIK Stockholm xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 June 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF 0 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 24% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.13) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.91x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
24%
4.16
34%
2.96
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.28
1.32
AIK Stockholm xG
4.16
24%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
6%
15.66
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.32 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Pre-Season
AIK Stockholm
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Hammarby FF 0-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 0.96 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.32 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 24% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 42%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.