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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out AIK Stockholm 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat AIK Stockholm 2-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.20 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.81 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.37 / defence 0.74 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 69% | Draw 19% | AIK Stockholm 12%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.89 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights