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Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Halmstad 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius beat Halmstad 0-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.74 xG and Sirius 1.60 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Halmstad fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Sirius attack 1.10 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Halmstad 41% | Draw 24% | Sirius 35%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Halmstad's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sirius's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.06 PPG, Sirius 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights