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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Halmstad cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over IFK Varnamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Halmstad beat IFK Varnamo 4-2 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.21 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.48 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Halmstad beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.76 / defence 1.30 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Halmstad 31% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 43%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Halmstad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.15 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Halmstad win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights