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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Halmstad and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 23, as Halmstad and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.40 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.79 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.13 / defence 1.32, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Halmstad 30% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 47%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Halmstad's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.04 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights