🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Halmstad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat Halmstad 0-3 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 0.90 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.39 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Halmstad fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Halmstad 24% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 48%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 49%, IFK Goteborg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Halmstad's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.12 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights