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Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Halmstad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat Halmstad 1-4 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.29 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 1.01 / defence 1.41 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Halmstad 31% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 43%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights