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Stalemate at Halmstad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 29, as Halmstad and IF Brommapojkarna drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 0.86 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.37 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Halmstad fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.68 / defence 1.09 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.91 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Halmstad 23% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 48%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Halmstad's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.10 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights