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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Halmstad defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Halmstad beat Hammarby FF 1-0 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.15 xG and Hammarby FF 1.87 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.75 / defence 1.13 against Hammarby FF attack 1.22 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Halmstad 23% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 54%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Halmstad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Halmstad's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Halmstad winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Halmstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights