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Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Halmstad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF beat Halmstad 0-5 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.70 xG and Degerfors IF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Halmstad fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF outscored their 0.88 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Degerfors IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Halmstad 57% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 19%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, Degerfors IF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Halmstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.10 PPG, Degerfors IF 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights