🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gais and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, as Gais and Osters IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 2.00 xG and Osters IF 0.83 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gais fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.10 / defence 0.85 against Osters IF attack 0.70 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 64% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 14%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 48%, Osters IF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Osters IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gais 1.71 PPG, Osters IF 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights