Gais 0-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 38%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gais vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mjallby AIF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Allsvenskan (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Gais (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Gais have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Mjallby AIF away from home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mjallby AIF are 1.10 PPG clear of Gais over their recent games (2.80 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2025, ended Gais 0–2 Mjallby AIF — a Mjallby AIF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gais goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 50% versus Mjallby AIF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 48% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.28 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.864 / defence 0.932 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.952 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.361. Data: built from Gais's last 33 games and Mjallby AIF's last 33.
Result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 35%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.62 | Draw 3.69 | Mjallby AIF 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gais 50% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 4 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Gais 1.28 / Mjallby AIF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.864 / def 0.932 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.952 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Gais (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mjallby AIF xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does Gais vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Gais vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Gais 0 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Gais vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Gais vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 38% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gais and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gais vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.86) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.95x) against Gais's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 33 games and Mjallby AIF's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.69
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Gais xG
Total xG
2.48
1.21
Mjallby AIF xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gais and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Gais and 1.21 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gais's recent record stands at 28W 16D 16L from 60 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 37W 14D 9L across 60 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gais heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gais have managed 17W 8D 5L from their last 30 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 17W 5D 8L across their last 30 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.68 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Gais (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Gais vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are Gais and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 37W 14D 9L in their last 60 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Gais's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.97 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Gais or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won Mjallby AIF 0-3 Gais on 20 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gais
3
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Mjallby AIF 0-3 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Mjallby AIF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 47%, Mjallby AIF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gais) and 57% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 33%; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gais vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gais and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gais's recent matches and 53% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gais and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gais's recent games and 57% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Gais's recent matches and 67% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gais's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and Mjallby AIF finished level at 0-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.28 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gais fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 38% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 35%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 48%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.