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Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gais.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Gais 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.12 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.38 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gais fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.99 / defence 0.77 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.31 / defence 0.84, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 30% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 42%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 48%, Mjallby AIF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gais 1.66 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights