Gais 2-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mjallby AIF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 0.70 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.677 / defence 1.378 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.946 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.361. Gais's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 3 Gais games / 33 Mjallby AIF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gais 14% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 63%. Fair-value odds: Gais 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 14% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 42% | xG Gais 0.70 / Mjallby AIF 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.677 / def 1.378 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.946 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Mjallby AIF xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Gais vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Gais 2 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Gais vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Gais vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 14% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gais and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Mjallby AIF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Mjallby AIF away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.68) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.95x) against Gais's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.2%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
14%
7.01
23%
4.42
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Gais xG
Total xG
2.48
1.77
Mjallby AIF xG
7.01
14%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
50%
2.02
Win to Nil
2%
41.35
31%
3.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gais and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Gais and 1.77 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Gais
3
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Mjallby AIF?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Gais 0-0 Mjallby AIF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 0.70 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.77 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.68 / defence 1.38 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.95 / defence 0.76, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gais 14% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 63%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Gais win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.