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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gais and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, as Gais and IFK Varnamo drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.77 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.96 / defence 1.43, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 57% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 19%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 55%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights