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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gais edge out IFK Norrkoping 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gais beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.71 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.99 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.97 / defence 0.80 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 54% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 22%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 47%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights