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Gais and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, as Gais and IF Brommapojkarna drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.26 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.94 / defence 0.74 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 43% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 28%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 55%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights