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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gais beat Hammarby FF 3-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 0.78 xG and Hammarby FF 1.02 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.82 / defence 0.76 against Hammarby FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 43%, Hammarby FF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gais 1.59 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights