Poisson model favours Gais (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gais face Halmstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Halmstad in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 26 July 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gais have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Gais have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi.
Halmstad (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Gais's favour (1.90 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, Gais are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Gais a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Statistical Overview
Gais's cumulative Allsvenskan record this campaign: 5W 4D 4L from 13 matches. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-1 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 13 games (15%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game.
Halmstad have played 12 games this season, recording 1W 3D 8L. Attacking returns: 0.8 goals per game; defensive: 2.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 5-2 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
Gais have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 1.40 per game versus 0.80 for the visitors. Gais have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 0.90 per game against Halmstad's 2.20. Gais lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 1). Gais score 2+ goals far more often (15% vs 0%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Gais have been awarded 1 penalty this season (1 scored).
Where They Stand
The standings have Gais (5th, 19 pts) 11 places above Halmstad (16th, 6 pts) — a 13-point gap in Allsvenskan.
Gais's home record this season stands at 4W 2D 1L. Away from home, Halmstad have posted 0W 1D 5L in Allsvenskan this season. Halmstad: Relegation - Superettan.
Trading & In-Play
Gais — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Halmstad — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 55% versus Halmstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 48% | Halmstad 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 2.00 xG and Halmstad 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.952 / defence 0.585 | Halmstad attack 0.730 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.438. Halmstad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Gais's defence rating of 0.585 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Gais games / 42 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 70% | Draw 21% | Halmstad 10%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.43 | Draw 4.76 | Halmstad 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Gais (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gais 40% | Halmstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC • Managers: Gais (T. Erixon) | Halmstad (J. Lindholm) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Gais 5W | Draws 3 | Halmstad 2W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Gais 15 – 10 Halmstad • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Gais 50% / Draw 30% / Halmstad 20% • Historical edge: Gais dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Gais favoured. H2H win rate 50%, Poisson win probability 70% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.61 (48% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 40% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Gais (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W • Halmstad (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L • Gais home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | CS 5 • Halmstad away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 2 • Form edge: Gais lead by 1.30 PPG (1.90 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Gais): Poisson projects 2.00 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Halmstad): Poisson projects 0.61 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.61 (48% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 40% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Gais — Gais at 70% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 70% | Draw 21% | Halmstad 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 40% | xG Gais 2.00 / Halmstad 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.952 / def 0.585 | Halmstad attack 0.730 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Gais (70%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Halmstad xG
40%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Halmstad kick off?
Gais vs Halmstad is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
Where is Gais vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Halmstad part of?
Gais vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 70% chance of winning, Halmstad a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gais and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Halmstad?
• Record (10 meetings): Gais 5W | Draws 3 | Halmstad 2W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Gais 15 – 10 Halmstad • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Gais 50% / Draw 30% / Halmstad 20% • Historical edge: Gais dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Gais favoured. H2H win rate 50%, Poisson win probability 70% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.61 (48% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 40% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Gais and Halmstad in?
• Gais (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W • Halmstad (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L • Gais home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | CS 5 • Halmstad away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 2 • Form edge: Gais lead by 1.30 PPG (1.90 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Gais): Poisson projects 2.00 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Halmstad): Poisson projects 0.61 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.61 (48% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 40% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Gais — Gais at 70% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Gais vs Halmstad?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture