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Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gais beat Djurgardens IF 3-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.08 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.99 / defence 0.80 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.05 / defence 0.74, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 34% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 36%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 48%, Djurgardens IF 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gais 1.66 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights