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Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gais beat BK Hacken 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.03 xG and BK Hacken 1.14 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against BK Hacken attack 1.01 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 32% | Draw 30% | BK Hacken 38%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 47%, BK Hacken 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

BK Hacken's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gais 1.63 PPG, BK Hacken 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights