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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.42 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gais 42% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 32%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 55%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gais 1.75 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights