🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 8-2 hammering of Sirius.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 8-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.79 xG and Sirius 1.47 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 8-2 for 10 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 6.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Sirius attack 1.18 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 45% | Draw 23% | Sirius 32%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 39%, Sirius 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Sirius's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights