🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Osters IF 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat Osters IF 1-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.43 xG and Osters IF 0.94 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.77 / defence 0.85 against Osters IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 49% | Draw 27% | Osters IF 25%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Osters IF 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.77 PPG, Osters IF 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights