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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Djurgardens IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Djurgardens IF 1-3 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.76 / defence 0.73 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.19 / defence 0.88, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 28% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 42%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights