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Shock result as Malmo FF defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Malmo FF beat Djurgardens IF 0-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.43 xG and Malmo FF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Malmo FF attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 43% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 31%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Malmo FF 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights