Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 45%, yet in-form Kalmar FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kalmar FF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Djurgardens IF, 0 for Kalmar FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus Kalmar FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 55% | Kalmar FF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.66 xG and Kalmar FF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.139 / defence 1.225 | Kalmar FF attack 1.019 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.040. Data: 53 Djurgardens IF games / 53 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 45% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 29%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 3.45. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 50% | Kalmar FF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 45% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.66 / Kalmar FF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.139 / def 1.225 | Kalmar FF attack 1.019 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 45% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.02x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.80
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.96
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.30 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 27W 11D 15L from 53 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 19L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 15W 6D 5L from 26 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 11W 7D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.06 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 11D 15L in their last 53 games (1.74 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 17W 17D 19L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.96 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 22 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 54%, Kalmar FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Djurgardens IF) and 46% (Kalmar FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 50% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 46% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Kalmar FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Kalmar FF 3-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.66 xG and Kalmar FF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.14 / defence 1.23 against Kalmar FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 45% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 29%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 55%, Kalmar FF 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.