Djurgardens IF 5-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 June 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 0.91 xG and Kalmar FF 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.970 / defence 1.207 | Kalmar FF attack 0.888 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 0.838 / away 1.540. Data: 3 Djurgardens IF games / 3 Kalmar FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 17% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 51%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 5.88 | Draw 3.23 | Kalmar FF 1.96. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 17% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Djurgardens IF 0.91 / Kalmar FF 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.970 / def 1.207 | Kalmar FF attack 0.888 / def 1.124 | league avg home 0.838 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Kalmar FF xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Djurgardens IF 5 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 17% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 51% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.89x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
17%
5.77
31%
3.18
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.56
1.65
Kalmar FF xG
5.77
17%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
30.02
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.65 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Pre-Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 22 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Kalmar FF 5-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 0.91 xG and Kalmar FF 1.65 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kalmar FF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Kalmar FF attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 17% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 51%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Djurgardens IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.