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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 6-2 hammering of IFK Varnamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat IFK Varnamo 6-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.85 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.48 xG, a combined 4.33. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.41 / defence 0.98 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.11 / defence 1.35, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 66% | Draw 17% | IFK Varnamo 18%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 40%, IFK Varnamo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights