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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping finished level at 1-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.42 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 43%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights