🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Djurgardens IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 3Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.83 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.59 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.60 / defence 1.01 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.13 / defence 0.77, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 43% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 33%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 41%, IFK Goteborg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.69 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights