Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to 3Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 1D 4L at 3Arena — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 3Arena this season.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Djurgardens IF. A 0.60 PPG lead over IF Elfsborg (2.20 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Djurgardens IF 4W, IF Elfsborg 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 45% versus IF Elfsborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 45% | IF Elfsborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.07 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.503 / defence 0.844 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.928 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.234. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.503 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Djurgardens IF games / 51 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 62% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 16%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | IF Elfsborg 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 40% | IF Elfsborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 62% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.07 / IF Elfsborg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.503 / def 0.844 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.928 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 62% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (9 meetings): Djurgardens IF 4W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.50) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.93x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.54
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.04
0.97
IF Elfsborg xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
2%
49.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.97 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 26W 12D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 21W 11D 19L from 51 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.45 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (12W 8D 5L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 5D 12L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.45 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 26W 12D 13L in their last 51 games (1.76 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 21W 11D 19L in their last 51 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.76 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: IF Elfsborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 56%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Djurgardens IF) and 52% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Djurgardens IF 1-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.07 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.97 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.50 / defence 0.84 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 62% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 16%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a IF Elfsborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 45%, IF Elfsborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.76 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.