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Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IF Elfsborg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.20 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 40%, IF Elfsborg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights