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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.33 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.26 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 38% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 38%, IF Brommapojkarna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights