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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 3Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF drew 3-3 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.32 xG and Hammarby FF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.97 / defence 0.77 against Hammarby FF attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 32%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 38%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.67 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights