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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Djurgardens IF and Halmstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 3Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Djurgardens IF and Halmstad drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.94 xG and Halmstad 0.65 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.01 / defence 0.82 against Halmstad attack 0.60 / defence 1.31, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 68% | Draw 20% | Halmstad 11%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 40%, Halmstad 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Halmstad's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Halmstad (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights