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Stalemate at Djurgardens IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF and Gais finished level at 0-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG and Gais 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gais landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Gais attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Gais 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG, Gais 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights