Djurgardens IF 4-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Djurgardens IF's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Djurgardens IF's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Djurgardens IF, 3 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Djurgardens IF 1–2 Degerfors IF — a Degerfors IF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 40% versus Degerfors IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.04 xG and Degerfors IF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.099 / defence 0.866 | Degerfors IF attack 0.820 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.218. Degerfors IF's defence rating of 1.340 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Djurgardens IF's projected output up. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 50 games and Degerfors IF's last 50.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 64% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 15%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.55 | Draw 4.84 | Degerfors IF 6.71. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Djurgardens IF's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 30% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 21 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 64% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Djurgardens IF 2.04 / Degerfors IF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.099 / def 0.866 | Degerfors IF attack 0.820 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Degerfors IF xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Djurgardens IF 4 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 21) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 64% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.10) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.82x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 50 games and Degerfors IF's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.84
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.90
0.86
Degerfors IF xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
51.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.86 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 10D 13L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (13W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 18W 2D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.04 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 10D 13L in their last 50 games (1.82 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 13W 12D 25L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.33 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won Djurgardens IF 5-1 Degerfors IF on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Djurgardens IF 2-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 33%, Degerfors IF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Djurgardens IF and 58% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 58% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 58% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 79% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Degerfors IF 4-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.04 xG and Degerfors IF 0.86 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Degerfors IF attack 0.82 / defence 1.34, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 64% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 15%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.