Djurgardens IF 0-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 25 as Djurgardens IF welcome BK Hacken to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 1.70 (BK Hacken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Djurgardens IF, 0 for BK Hacken and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BK Hacken trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 39% versus BK Hacken 76%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | BK Hacken 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.18 xG and BK Hacken 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.544 / defence 0.779 | BK Hacken attack 1.344 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.139. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.544 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. BK Hacken have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Djurgardens IF games / 54 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 18%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | BK Hacken 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 40% | BK Hacken 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.18 / BK Hacken 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.544 / def 0.779 | BK Hacken attack 1.344 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
BK Hacken xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 58% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.15
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.37
1.19
BK Hacken xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
11%
8.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
2%
48.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.19 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 54 games, going 31W 12D 11L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.56 PPG from 54 outings (22W 18D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.94 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 20W 3D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.50 points per game from 26 outings (9W 12D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.83 scored and 1.43 conceded. BK Hacken's attacking output running into Djurgardens IF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 76%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 11L in their last 54 games (1.94 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 22W 18D 14L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.42 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Djurgardens IF at 50%, BK Hacken at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Djurgardens IF and 58% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Djurgardens IF's games and 85% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 58% of BK Hacken's.
Do Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BK Hacken defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Djurgardens IF 0-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.18 xG and BK Hacken 1.19 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.54 / defence 0.78 against BK Hacken attack 1.34 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 18%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a BK Hacken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, BK Hacken 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.94 PPG, BK Hacken 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.