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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Degerfors IF 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osters IF beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.05 xG and Osters IF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.71 / defence 1.32 against Osters IF attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 32% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 39%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, Osters IF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights