Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Degerfors IF have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Orgryte IS's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Orgryte IS's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Degerfors IF 2W, Orgryte IS 0W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus Orgryte IS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Orgryte IS 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.57 xG and Orgryte IS 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.789 / defence 1.128 | Orgryte IS attack 0.766 / defence 1.484. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.298. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.484 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Degerfors IF games / 27 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 48% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 27%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Orgryte IS 3.70. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 40% | Orgryte IS 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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