Degerfors IF 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Mjallby AIF have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
It is worth noting that Mjallby AIF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 59% versus Mjallby AIF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 56% | Mjallby AIF 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.96 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / defence 1.173 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.970 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.284. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Degerfors IF games / 59 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 49%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 2.04. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Mjallby AIF 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Degerfors IF 0.96 / Mjallby AIF 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / def 1.173 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.970 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Mjallby AIF xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 25% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (5 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 4W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.97x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
25%
4.05
26%
3.78
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.42
1.46
Mjallby AIF xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.45
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.46 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 14W 15D 30L from 59 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 22L across 59 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 8D 11L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 13W 6D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.07 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 14W 15D 30L in their last 59 games (0.97 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 15D 22L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.31 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-1 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
8
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 59%, Mjallby AIF 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Degerfors IF) and 24% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 45%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 31% of games; Mjallby AIF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 24% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 24% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.96 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.97 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 49%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 56%, Mjallby AIF 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.