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Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Degerfors IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Malmo FF beat Degerfors IF 1-4 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.72 xG and Malmo FF 0.95 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Malmo FF outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.67 / defence 0.93 against Malmo FF attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 26% | Draw 35% | Malmo FF 39%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, Malmo FF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Malmo FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights