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Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.14 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 44%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, IFK Varnamo 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 0.87 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights