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Stalemate at Degerfors IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 17, as Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.94 xG and IFK Norrkoping 2.15 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IFK Norrkoping landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.60 / defence 1.52 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.15 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 15% | Draw 20% | IFK Norrkoping 65%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, IFK Norrkoping 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.48 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights