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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Degerfors IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat Degerfors IF 1-3 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.97 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.45 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.69 / defence 1.19 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 48%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, IFK Goteborg 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 0.87 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights