Degerfors IF 2-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Degerfors IF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Stora Valla in Allsvenskan (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 29 July 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Brommapojkarna — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Degerfors IF have won 1, IF Brommapojkarna 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Degerfors IF 2–1 IF Brommapojkarna — a Degerfors IF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 59% and IF Brommapojkarna 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 56% | IF Brommapojkarna 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / defence 1.236 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.097 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.236. Degerfors IF's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IF Brommapojkarna's projected output up. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 47 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 16.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 44%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.29 | Draw 3.87 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 17 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Degerfors IF 1.37 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / def 1.236 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.097 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.68
IF Brommapojkarna xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Degerfors IF 2 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 17) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 30% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.83) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Degerfors IF's last 47 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.87
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.05
1.68
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
17.59
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.68 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 12D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.83 PPG from 46 outings (26W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
IF Brommapojkarna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Degerfors IF's home form reads 8W 8D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.39 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 23 away games (11W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.83 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 63%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Degerfors IF (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Degerfors IF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 11W 12D 23L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 26W 6D 14L in their last 46 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.39 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Jun 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won Degerfors IF 0-3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Degerfors IF have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 56%, IF Brommapojkarna 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Degerfors IF) and 61% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna in 30%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Degerfors IF's games and 61% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Degerfors IF's matches and 61% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 87% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.10 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 44%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 56%, IF Brommapojkarna 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.