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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Degerfors IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gais beat Degerfors IF 0-3 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.72 xG and Gais 2.04 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gais outscored their 2.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.66 / defence 1.48 against Gais attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 20% | Gais 68%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Gais 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Gais's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.51 PPG, Gais 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights