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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF finished level at 1-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.46 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.65 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.46 / defence 1.10 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.10 / defence 0.69, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 10% | Draw 23% | Djurgardens IF 67%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Djurgardens IF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.40 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights